5

15:55 Ascot 07 Sep 2019

Lavazza Stakes

Heritage Handicap | Class 2 | 3YO only

Winner £62,250 - 11 ran

1m 3f 211y

Good to Firm

Draw Advantage: High

Last year’s race

First Eleven
  • Winner: First Eleven
  • Jockey: R Havlin
  • Trainer: J H M Gosden
  • Owner: Mr K Abdullah
  • Age: 3 Weight: 9st 6lbs
  • Starting Price: 5/2
  • Season Form Figures: 2135
  • Previous Best: 3rd - King George V Stakes (Handicap), Royal Ascot (June 2018)

A heritage handicap worth £100,000 for three-year-olds over 1m4f, it is always worth checking out the draw stats in double-figure fields over this trip in handicaps at Ascot like the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot where high-drawn horses have historically fared well and they tell a story here too as six of the last ten winners were drawn 10+ in a race where the maximum limit is 16 runners. In fact, three of the four winners that were not drawn 10+ weren’t draw low in 7, 8 and 9 and two of those were in just 11-runner renewals.

Six of the last ten winners were drawn 10+ in a race where the maximum limit is 16 runners.

Saeed bin Suroor won the 2012 and 2013 runnings for Godolphin but doesn’t have any entries this season. However, the Charlie Appleby wing of the operation have two entries. William Haggas and Andrew Balding both have entries. Haggas has marginally the better record in the last decade with a winner and three places from seven runners, though Balding’s performance from a winner and place from six runners is more than respectable.

Sir Michael Stoute on the other hand has managed just one placed contender from ten runners over the same period of time. Mark Johnston does have a victory to his name and three entries to choose from, though from 19 runners.

It’s been a pretty good race for punters of late with the favourite obliging in three of the last six runnings, though five of the last winners were sent off at double-figure odds.

Four of the last eight winners won last time out, including the dead-heaters Duretto and Wonder Laish in 2015, though LTO winners have averaged over four runners per running in the last decade so no real angle there.

Last year’s winner carried 9st 6lb so became the highest-weighted winner since Barbican (9st 7lb) in 2011. Only seven horses have carried 9st 7lb+ though and in addition to Barbican, two others have placed.

At a glance summary

Positives
Positives:
Drawn in double figures
Owned by Godolphin
Trained by William Haggas and Andrew Balding
The favourite
Negatives
Drawn 1-6
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute