Trendspotting

We've analysed all the data from past Royal Ascots to reveal the facts no punter should bet without knowing - covers every aspect including trainers, jockeys, sires and form trends at the meeting.

Up to £30 in free bets

For punters relying on stats and trends to beat the bookies, then the 2019 Royal Ascot Trendspotting Guide highlights a host of winner-finding angles.

We start with a close-up on the most popular trainers and jockeys to have impacted this fixture in recent times, including Aidan O’Brien, who sent out 22 winners during the last four years alone.

TRAINERS – THE BIG FIVE

Aidan O’Brien

Standing clear of the rest at the top of the Royal Ascot leaderboard is Aidan O’Brien, who arrives with his yard in good form having already bagged four of the six English and Irish Classics. O’Brien has his dual 1,000 Guineas winner, Hermosa, entered in the Coronation Stakes, though she’s likely to go for the Prix de Diane, while the 2,000 Guineas winner, Magna Grecia, is on a recovery mission in the St James’s Palace Stakes having flopped in the Irish 2,000.

Elsewhere, the yard have numerous fancied runners heading to Berkshire, including both Monarch Of Egypt (11-2) and (6-1) in the Coventry/Norfolk, Constantinople (6-1) and Western Australia (13-2) in the Queens Vase, Magical (3-1) in the Prince of Wales, Pink Dogwood (5-1) in the Ribblesdale, Japan (5-1) and Sir Dragonet (5-1) in the King Edward VII and Ten Sovereigns (13-8) in the Commonwealth Cup.

Best races (all-time): Coventry Stakes (8); St James’s Palace Stakes (7); Gold Cup (7); Queen’s Vase (6); Chesham Stakes (4); Jersey Stakes (3); Queen Anne Stakes (3); Prince of Wales’s Stakes (3); Coronation Stakes (3); Hardwicke Stakes (3); Norfolk Stakes (3); Hampton Court Stakes (3); Ribblesdale Stakes (3)
Positives: Group 2/3 & Listed races (24-145 +£55); 2yos (10-60 +£27); first run over trip (15-78 +£20); beaten 1-4l last time (10-56 +£48)
Negatives: Non-Group races (1-25 -£14)

John Gosden

Tony Blair was still Prime Minister in 2003 when John Gosden last left the Royal Meeting without a winner, and it was just 12 months ago he helped himself to a memorable four-timer. His old partner, Frankie Dettori, was in the saddle for each of those, including a fourth victory in the Wolferton Stakes – his most successful race at the meeting. The Gosden/Dettori combo also look set for a good meeting this time around having already joined forces to win this year’s Epsom Derby with Anapurna.

Best races: Wolferton Stakes (4); Prince of Wales’s Stakes (3); Britannia Stakes (3); King Edward VII Stakes (3); Jersey Stakes (2); Windsor Forest Stakes (2); Tercentenary Stakes (2); Coronation Stakes (2); Chesham Stakes (2); Royal Hunt Cup (2); Ribblesdale Stakes (2); St James’s Stakes (2)
Positives: 2yos and 4yos (14-61 +£47); not moving up in trip (14-77 +£20); last time out winner (15-66 +£16)
Negatives: 3yos (9-110 -£52); Non-Group/Listed (2-47 -£31); Thursday (3-56 -£40)

Sir Michael Stoute

Having missed the target in 2017, Sir Michael Stoute made up for lost time in sending out a four-timer 12 months ago. The quartet of winners also produced a level stakes profit of +£16, which was healthier than the last time Stoute had four winners in 2014 (-£1), suggesting there may be more value with his runners these days – at the start of June, Stoute was also +£26 with all runners this season. The Newmarket handler arrives with several market leaders this time around, including Crystal Ocean, who bids to follow-up last year’s Hardwicke win.

Best races: Hardwicke Stakes (11); King Edward VII Stakes (7); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (5); King George V Stakes (4); Coronation Stakes (4); Queen’s Vase (4); Jersey Stakes (4); Windsor Forest Stakes (3); Ribblesdale Stakes (2); Wolferton Stakes (2); Queen of Alexandra Stakes (2); Tercentenary Stakes (2)
Positives: 1m4f (10-80 +£21); 4yos (12-50 (+£19); Group 2 (10-40 +£19); Friday/Saturday (13-55 +£34); Newmarket/Newbury/York last time (11-52 +£26)
Negatives: Tuesday (0-11 -£11); Female (4-38 -£21); 14-1 or bigger (0-27 -£27); upped 1f-3f from last time (3-48 -£28)

Mark Johnston

Another of the regular trainers on the scoresheet here is the record-breaking Mark Johnston, who at the start of June sent out the most winners this season. Johnston also developed a habit of recording doubles at Royal Ascot, having enjoyed a brace in seven of the last 10 years, including 12 months ago with Main Edition 7-1 & Baghdad 9-1 – the latter made it a fifth win in the King George V Stakes (Handicap).

Best races: Queen’s Vase (7); King George V Stakes (5); Hardwicke Stakes (4); Ascot Gold Cup (3); Chesham Stakes (3); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (3); King Edward VII Stakes (3); Sandringham Handicap (2); Queen Alexandra Stakes (2)
Positives: 14-1 or shorter (15-75 +£50); officially rated 99-105 (9-40 +£34)
Negatives: 5f (0-24 -£24); 16-1 or bigger (0-133 -£133)

Wesley Ward

Wesley Ward made another successful trip from America last year when hitting double-figures at Royal Ascot courtesy of his tenth Royal Ascot winner in Shang Shang Shang who took the Norfolk Stakes at 5-1 – Ward’s second victory in the race; Ward also took the Queen Mary on three occasions. Not only do these victories highlight the American’s skill with speedsters, but also the value on offer about his runners – backing the yard blind here since 2009 returned 10-56 (+£48).

Best races: Queen Mary Stakes (3 wins); Norfolk Stakes (2); Windsor Castle Stakes (2)
Positives: 5f (8-30 +£38)
Negatives: Stalls 1-5 (1-15 -£11)

Saeed Bin Suroor has gradually slipped out of the elite band of trainers at Royal Ascot with just one winner in four years (1-52), but is still respected in the following races: Queen Anne Stakes (7 wins), Ascot Gold Cup (5) and Ribblesdale Stakes (5). It might also be worth treading carefully with Willie Haggas’s runners here, as they struck just once from 82 runners since 2011.

Charlie Appleby on the other hand, is working his way up the leaderboard with six winners – all of whom came since 2015. Appleby left with a double on his last two visits to the fixture, though training for Godolphin can attract too much attention in the market as the yard’s six winners here returned at 6-89 (-£22). Keep an eye out for Appleby’s runners that run at Ascot/Newmarket last time, though, as they connected at 5-29 (+£21).

Willie Mullins is another heading the right way at Ascot having missed out during 2009-2011, before sending out six winners since (6-28 +£11). Of those six winners, four came via the jumps last time out for a bigger profit (4-14 +£17) than those from the Flat (2-17 -£10).

Be Wary Of…

David Barron: 0-28
Ralph Becket: 1-53

JOCKEYS – THE BIG FOUR

Ryan Moore

As a beneficiary of the mighty Aidan O’Brien yard, Ryan Moore is way clear of his next pursuer on the Royal Ascot leaderboard with a huge tally of 50 winners – 28 ahead of William Buick.

With Buick absent at this year’s meeting, Moore may fancy his chances of riding another basket of winners which was the norm in recent years – Moore left with at least five winners in each of the last five Royal Ascots, including a staggering nine-timer in 2015. The master jockey added a fourth Queens Vase to his growing Ascot CV 12 months ago, though it proved difficult making a blind profit following Moore. Therefore, a few “positives” from below should be noted when contemplating backing Moore across the five days in the quest for profit.

Best races (all-time): Queen’s Vase (4 wins); Hardwicke Stakes (4); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (3); Ribblesdale Stakes (3); Ascot Stakes (3); Queen of Alexandra Stakes (3); Hampton Court Stakes (3); Chesham Stakes (3); Britannia Stakes (2); Wolferton Stakes (2); Gold Cup (2); Coventry Stakes (2); Norfolk Stakes (2); Coronation Stakes (2)
Positives: Round Course: 31-138 (+£12); 8-1 or shorter (46-189 +£27); arrived via the Nemarket Guineas meeting/Curragh Guineas meeting/Newbury Lockinge meeting (20-71 +£37)
Negatives: Good ground or softer (14-103 -£-43)

Frankie Dettori

Following several below-par performances for his high standards at Royal Ascot, Frankie Dettori struck back to ride 11 winners during the last three renewals. Last year saw a second consecutive four-timer for the Italian, each of which were trained by John Gosden, for whom he rode the recent Epsom Derby winner. The duo could be set for another exciting five days, especially with those Dettori rode last time out and stuck with at Ascot.

Best races: Queen Anne Stakes (6); Ribblesdale Stakes (6); Ascot Gold Cup (6); Chesham Stakes (4); Sandringham Handicap (4); King Edward VII Stakes (4); Norfolk Stakes (3); Prince of Wales’s Stakes (3); St James’s Palace Stakes (3); Royal Hunt Cup (2); Queen’s Vase (2); Queen Mary Stakes (2)
Positives: Dettori rode last time (13-78 +£34); Wesley Ward (2-8 +£10); Richard Hannon Jnr (2-8 +£8)
Negatives: Non-Group/Listed (1-48 -£19)

Jamie Spencer

The ultra-cool Jamie Spencer put his patient style to good effect once more last year when arriving late to land the Sandringham Stakes, in the process showcasing his liking for the long straight. Of his other rides on the famous straight 12 months ago, Spencer had two runners-up (8-1 & 20-1) and a third (22-1), while in 2017 he triumphed twice up the straight on 25-1 and 20-1 shots.

Best races: Albany Stakes (4); Britannia Stakes (3); Sandringham Stakes (3); Coventry Stakes (2)
Positives: Straight Course (9-95 +£23); Handicaps (6-62 +£19); 2-3yos (9-89 +£19)
Negatives: Group 1 (1-35 -£33)

James Doyle

Having missed out during his first three visits to Royal Ascot from 2009-2102, James Doyle then rode a treble in 2013 prior to riding at least a winner each year since, leaving with a second consecutive double 12 months ago on Poets Word in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes – Doyle’s second victory in the race. The Englishman was also among the winners of late, riding a memorable four-timer at Yarmouth from just four rides – two of which came for Charlie Appleby with whom he’s enjoyed a successful long-term partnership.

Best races: Prince of Wales's Stakes (2); St. James's Palace Stakes (2)
Positives: Wednesday (6-24 +£64); 1m-1m2f (7-49 +£37)
Negatives: 5f-7f (2-53 -£38)

Another to keep watch on over the five days is Adam Kirby when riding for Clive Cox (5-37 +£8), though it could be worth treading carefully when contemplating an apprentice jockey, as they struck just twice for a huge loss (2-146 -£128).

TRIALS

Keeping an eye on key trials leading up to Royal Ascot proved a worthwhile exercise down the years, especially when traditional springboards are used as a final prep for the five-day meeting.

With that in mind, the following list highlights the most reliable trials to have thrown up direct winners at Ascot – for instance, heading the list is May’s Irish 2,000 Guineas, whose runners supplied 16 royal winners since 1997.

TOP ROYAL ASCOT TRIALS – since 1997

RaceSubsequent winners at Royal Ascot
Irish 2,000 Guineas16 - St James Palace (13), Jersey (3)
Lockinge13 - Queen Anne (12), Windsor Forest (1)
1,000 Guineas12 - Coronation (9), Sandringham (2), Ribblesdale (1)
Henry II11 - Gold Cup (8), Queen Alexandra (3)
Coronation Cup10 - Hardwicke (8) Prince of Wales (2)
Epsom Derby10 - Hampton Court (3), K Edward VII (3), Queen’s Vase (2) Sandringham (1), St James’s Palace (1)
Epsom Oaks9 - Ribblesdale (6), Coronation (2), Sandringham (1)
Temple Stakes7 - King's Stand (7)
Duke of York7 - Diamond Jubilee (7)
Victoria Cup7 - Royal Hunt Cup (3), Buckingham Palace (2), Wokingham (2)
2,000 Guineas7 - Jersey (4), St James Palace (3)
Tattersalls Gold Cup6 - Prince of Wales (5), Wolferton (1)
Hambleton H’cap6 - Wolferton (3), Royal Hunt Cup (2), Prince of Wales (1)
Lingfield Derby Trial6 - Queens' Vase (4), K George V (1), K Edward VII (1)
Kings Stand Stakes5 - Diamond Jubilee (4), Wokingham (1)
Irish 1,0005 - Coronation (4); Jersey (1)
Saval Beg Stakes5 - Gold Cup (4), Queen Alexandra (1)
Fairway Stakes5 - K Edward VII (3), Queen's Vase (1) Hampton Court (1)
Chester Cup4 - Ascot Stakes (2), Queen Alexandra (2)
King Charles II Stks4 - Jersey (4)
Ascot Stakes4 - Queen Alexandra (4)
Princess Elizabeth4 - Duke Of Cambridge (4)
National Stakes4 - Queen Mary (3), Norfolk (1)
Huxley Stakes4 - Hardwicke (4)
London Gold Cup4 - Tercentenary (2), K Edward VII (1), King George V (1)
Marygate Stakes4 - Queen Mary (4)
Ormonde Stakes4 - Hardwicke (4)
Brigadier Gerard4 - Hardwicke (2), Prince of Wales (2)
Yorkshire Cup4 - Gold Cup (3), Queen Alexandra (1)
Hilary Needler3 - Queen Mary (2), Windsor Castle (1)
Dante3 - King Edward VII (2), Hampton Court (1)
Silver Bowl3 - Britannia (3)
Greenham3 - St James Palace (3)

With the Irish 2,000 Guineas boasting such a good record in the St James’s Palace, it’s no surprise to see this year’s winner from the Curragh, Phoenix Of Spain, heading to Ascot as the 7-4 favourite having impressed in Ireland.

The Lockinge is another excellent pointer for Ascot, having produced 12 Queen Anne winners since 1997, and the betting suggests that record could be upheld with both Mustashry andLe Brivido heading the market. The former quickened nicely to win at Newbury, while the latter didn’t get the smoothest passage before finishing with petrol in the tank.

The Ascot Gold Cup looks a hot renewal with last year’s winner, Stradivarius, back to defend the crown against the Melbourne Cup winner, Cross Counter, but Dee Ex Bee shouldn’t be overlooked at 6-1. Mark Johnston’s 4yo made them all go when landing the Henry II Stakes, which produced eight Gold Cup winners.

Another each-way alternative at Royal Ascot is Kew Gardens, who finished second in the recent Coronation Cup at Epsom, where eight Hardwicke winners emerged. Aidan O’Brien’s colt won the Queen’s Vase here 12 months ago his stamina could prove an asset.

Another Epsom event that could have a say is the Oaks, where Pink Dogwood finished runner-up. The Ribblesdale was the traditional next stop for Oaks runners, which could also see Mehdaayih enter calculations having suffered a bumpy path when seventh at Epsom.

FORM

With last time out form such a valuable component in finding winners at Royal Ascot, knowing which racecourses and race types to have supplied winners in the past can help point up some handy clues, as can be seen from the table below, listing the most productive tracks.

2009-2018

TrackW-R%£1
Newmarket (Rowley)40-4798%-144
Curragh31-26912%-19
Epsom23-3087%-98
Newbury22-2549%-39
York20-4365%-238
Haydock17-3195%-143
Sandown15-2476%-91
Ascot13-2775%-94
Goodwood11-2534%-143
Doncaster10-1377%-41
Leopardstown10-7813%-1
Newmarket (July)9-7911%-1
Chester8-1655%-117

While none of the above tracks produced a level stakes profit at Ascot, several boast a higher strike-rate than others, including both the Irish tracks at the Curragh and Leopardstown, where a bit of extra digging reveals some handy pointers.

Irish form

Those making the trip across the Irish Sea having made the top two at the Curragh struck at 24-120 (+£66), with winners at 33-1, 20-1, 16-1, 11-1 and 10-1 down the years, while both Merchant Navy and Alpha Centauri struck 12 months ago. Similarly, runners that won at Leopardstown last time out struck at Ascot for a return of 6-33 (+£5). It’s also worth looking out for Irish raiders that made the trip to Ascot from Punchestown (3 winners), Cork (2), Tipperary (2) and Killarney (1) , as they struck collectively at 8-38 (+£20).

Newmarket form

With such strong form having already taken place at Newmarket (Rowley) this season, it may not shock to learn that they produced numerous winners at Ascot. There is one vital key to knowing which ones to look out for, though, as those fancied at Ascot in the 10/1 or shorter bracket came out way in front at 33-162 (+£58) – compare that to those from HQ whose SP at Ascot was 11-1 or bigger (7-317, -£202). This approach produced a return of 4-12 (+£22) at last year’s meeting thanks to Old Persian (9-2), Expert Eye (8-1), Monarchs Glen (8-1) and Ostillo (10-1).

Epsom form

As was the case regarding Newmarket form, siding with fit runners that were well fancied in Berkshire from Epsom proved profitable – rather than those sent to Ascot from Epsom as an afterthought. Indeed, Epsom runners that went off at 16-1 or shorter connected at 22-147 (+£42), compared to last time out Epsom runners at 18-1 or bigger here (1-159, -£138) – Dash Of Spice (7-2), Magic Wand (10-3) and Kew Gardens (10-3) all delivered in 2018.

Newbury form

The 2018 Royal Meeting also revealed a pattern involving runners from Newbury, as those that went close and were beaten 1-2l at the aforementioned track gained compensation here in a big way to the tune of 12-67 (+£72) – last year’s two winners were Accidental Agent (33-1) and Eqtidaar (12-1).

PROFILES

TWO-YEAR-OLDS

Royal Ascot’s juvenile events are traditionally thrilling contests where future stars can emerge, and with six high-class 2yo races for punters to sort through across the five days, the following stats could prove handy in the quest for profit.

Juvenile races 2009-2018

Last time outW-R£1
Won41-555-188
Runner-up2-149-120
Third3-105-69
Fourth4-63-1
Fifth or worse1-93-78



No. of UK runsW-R£1
No run9-85+14
One run25-314-110
Two runs14-373-212
Three runs8-184-96
Four runs+4-94-38



BredW-R£1
GB18-375-192
IRE24-521-286
USA16-129+26
FR2-18+18

(British form only)

The standout stat from above is the number of juvenile winners to have arrived at Ascot having tasted victory last time out. Of the 60 winners during the last 10 years, over two-thirds won last time out, and while following them blind produced a big level stakes loss, it still demonstrated the importance of siding with winning form. If there was one area to try and whittle the list down, then siding with American-bred (USA) or French-bred runners came out in profit (18-147 +£34), while value was on offer in the 14-1 to 22-1 range at 16-197 (+£89).

Avoiding those that finished runner-up last time also helped, while on the trainer front, the American handler, Wesley Ward, regularly raided the pot (7-41 +£22). Don’t forget Aidan O’Brien, though, who also returned a healthy level stakes profit at 10-60 (+£27).

GROUP RACES 2009-2018

Group 1

CategoryW-R£1
Overall74-914-418
Group 1 last time31-237-75
Group 2, 3 last time25-349-161
Non-Group/Listed last time7-211-141
Won last time35-220-77
Beaten under 1l last time5-110-52
Beaten 1-2l last time8-92-28

(British form only)

Apart from the above stats, sticking with fancied runners in Group 1s at 10-11 to 6-1 returned 14-173 (+£16), compared to rank outsiders at 40-1 or bigger, as they blanked in Group 1s during the last 10 years from 197 runners.

In terms of their final outing before Ascot, then a fair number arrived via a Guineas meeting at the Curragh (29-224 +£7) or Newmarket (23-197 -£37), though it was the former, which offered better value. Another interesting stat shows that runners who took part in a jumps festival (Punchestown, Aintree, Cheltenham) prior to facing Group 1 rivals at Ascot also did well collectively at 6-22 (+£42).

Group 2

CategoryW-R£1
Overall72-928-381
Group 1 last time8-71-16
Group 2 last time5-46+11
Group 3 last time16-114-21
Non-Group/Listed last time37-655-343
Won last time40-442-147
Beaten under 1l last time7-64-16
Beaten 1-2l last time2-86-61

(British form only)

As in Group1s, it paid to stick with runners at the fancied end of the market around the 13-8 to 5-1 range at 37-136 (+£24), while rank outsiders at 28-1 or bigger blanked at 0-263. Another pointer came with runners officially rated 103-106 (11-64, +£29), while on the trainer front, the following two names placed their runners well in Group 2s: Aidan O’Brien (11-73 +£13) and Sir Michael Stoute (10-40 +£19). The two aforementioned names were also among the trainers who sent their horses for an Ascot Group 2 direct from either the Newmarket Guineas meeting or the Epsom Derby fixture – a worthwhile tactic as they delivered at 19-113 (+£26).

Group 3

CategoryW-R£1
Overall33-520-221
Group 1 last time9-44+£59
Group 2 last time0-14-14
Group 3 last time4-25-12
Listed last time3-136-112
Won last time14-203-99
Beaten under 1l last time3-35-6
Beaten 1-2l last time2-54-28

(British form only)

A similar theme occurred in Group 3s to the Group 1s and 2s, with certain runners favoured in the market, although with Group 3s value was found in the 7-1 to 20-1 range at 18-221 (+£16), while outsiders struggled at 22-1 or bigger, missing the target on 210 occasions.

Both Guineas meetings were also informative for Ascot Group 3s, with Newmarket and the Curragh responsible for 10 winners here (10-55 +£48), while a big tick was awarded for runners dropping from Group 1 company. Trainer, Aidan O’Brien, was among the Group 3 profits via his six winners (6-37 +£18), while respect goes to the classier runners officially rated 111-114 (9-34 +£48).

ROYAL ASCOT HANDICAPS 2009-2018

Last time outW-R%£1
Won33-4627%-199
Runner-up18-2517%-8
Third and fourth16-4074%-169
Fifth to ninth12-5082%-273
Tenth to fifteenth4-1842%-105
Sixteenth or worse1-452%-11




0-1 previous handicap wins371-10334%-547
2-3 previous handicap wins38-5157%-21
4+ previous handicap wins10-3263%-192

The above table highlights some hotspots pointing the way to an ideal profile for a winner of the prestige handicaps at Ascot. Two such clues include having 2-3 previous handicap wins, while a top four last time out was also vital, and while each on their own returned a loss, combing them returned 33-339 (+£27) – last year saw Bacchus land the Wokingham at 33-1, while both Settle For Bay (16-1) and Baghdad (9-1) also delivered.

Three-year-old handicaps 2009-2018

Punters seeking a tasty handicap winner throughout the week have handicaps for older runners and ones for three-year-olds only, like the Britannia and King George V Stakes. When studying a three-year-old handicap, it could be worth looking for runners raised 8-10lb higher from last time as they struck gold to the tune of 12-66 (+£49) since 2009 – Baghdad the latest at 9-1 last year. Be wary, though, of 3yo handicappers that were American-bred (2-76, -£44) or ran in maiden last time out: 1-51 (-£44).

Form figures ahead of Royal Ascot

Of the 300 Royal Ascot winners in all races since 2009, a staggering 178 finished first or second last time out. Admittedly, such runners represented a large slice of the pie with 2229 runners (8%), but compare that to the remainder who struck at just 99-2371 (4%).

As for a more precise clue to backing a runner that had a “1 or 2” in their form last time, then it’s worth noting those in Ascot races with just 5-8 runners as they struck at 18-81 (+£19).

Headgear

While the application of headgear can sometimes be deemed a negative, it is possible to triumph wearing blinkers, visors or cheekpieces at the Royal Meeting, though it needs noting the strike-rate remains low, as can be seen via the breakdown below.

Blinkers: 13-254 (5%) -£107
Cheekpieces: 17-292 (6%) -£100
Hood: 10-126 (8%) +£3
Visor: 2-109 (2%) -£70

What stands out from the stats above is the success of horses wearing a hood, which proved more popular in recent times – only one runner triumphed in a hood from 2010-2013 (1-33), but there were nine winners since, including a treble last year (9-93 +£32).

As for those wearing headgear for the first time in the UK at Ascot, they returned a collective record of 18-292 (-£65) – once again, horses wearing a hood for the first time at Ascot did much better at 5-28 (+£22).

Penalties in handicaps

It proved difficult to lump extra weight to glory at Ascot, as only three triumphed from the 45 to have attempted the feat:

3lb: 0-2 (-£2)
4lb: 1-4 (+£9)
5lb: 2-39 (-£21)

Of the three penalised runners to have won at Ascot, each earned the penalty via a winning distance of 1-2 lengths (3-21 +£10).

ASCOT SPECIALISTS

Ascot form stands up year after year, with the best horses turning up the heat when it matters. The nature of the demanding straight track in particular, with races traditionally run at a stronger gallop, are just several reasons why certain horses repeat their form here. Therefore, it could be worth keeping an eye out for any of the following runners should they appear across the five days.

HorseWinsPlacesRunsEach-way %
Stradivarius314100%
Ripp Orf22580%
Tabarrak20450%
Danehill Kodiac21560%
Raising Sand331060%
Normandy Barriere231050%
The Tin Man30837%

THE DRAW

With so many big fields on offer across the five days at Ascot, the starting position – or draw – can prove vital.

The draw is just as important on the Round Course as it is on the Straight Course, with last year’s 16-runner Wolferton Stakes over 1m2f falling to Monarchs Glen, who stuck to the inner from stall 6. However, over trips of 1m4f, the bias favoured double-figure stalls, with both of last year’s big handicaps over that trip – the King George V & Duke of Edinburgh – won by stalls 16 and 14. With that in mind, the following chart features stats from the last five years of this fixture, highlights such trends.

Race/Year20182017201620152014
King's Stand 5f10/14 gf18/17 gf8/17 sft3/18 gf8/16 gd
Windsor Castle 5f22/28 gf12/22 gf1/22 sft6/27 gf25/24 gd
Queen Mary 5f16/22 gf20/23 gf14/17 sft20/20 gf12/21 gf
Albany Stakes 6f15/18 gf13/20 gf16/16 gs13/18 gf17/21 gf
Coventry 6f22/23 gf9/18 gf13/18 sft10/17 gf1/15 gd
Diamond Jubilee 6f11/12 gf3/19 gf3/9 gs6/15 gf4/14 gf
Wokingham 6f16/28 gf1/27 gf28/28 gs21/25 gf27/28 gf
Jersey 7f8/21 gf10/20 gf7/19 sft9/16 gf19/23 gd
Sandringham 1m5/23 gf11/24 gf17/21 sft14/17 gf22/24 gf
Royal Hunt Cup 1m22/30 gf26/29 gf4/28 sft11/30 gf33/28 gf
Britannia 1m15/30 gf3/29 gf12/28 sft11/28 gf26/20 gf
Wolferton 1m2f6/16 gf5/16 gf5/15 gs7/13 gf15/13 gf
King George V 1m4f16/18 gf22/18 gf11/16 sft20/17 gf14/18 gf
Duke of Edinburgh 1m4f14/17 gf19/19 gf19/19 gs21/17 gf12/18 gf
Ascot Stakes 2m4f1/19 gf11/18 gf2/20 sft19/19 gf17/19 gd

gf = good to firm; gd = good; gs = good to soft; s = soft

Straight Course

The 2018 meeting saw nine 11 of the big-field events on the Straight Course won by a horse drawn in double-figures (middle to stands’ side) – each of which took place on fast ground. However, trends do change year-by-year, so what worked last year may not repeat itself, especially on different ground. But, should an early pattern develop on day one, then it can affect results throughout the week with jockeys influenced more towards favoured parts of the track. While low numbers had their moments on the Straight Course, the overall bias was with runners in double-figure stalls when the ground rode good or firmer.

20 runner+ races 2014-2018 (Royal Ascot, good or firmer)

Stalls 1-9: 6-254 (1% -£167)
Stalls 10-19: 12-288 (4% -£111)
Stalls 20+: 13-236 (5% -£66)

While there wasn’t a blind level stakes profit, the highest third of stalls (stalls 20 or higher) provided the best strike-rate, despite the smallest number of qualifiers.

Round Course (1m2f-2m4f)

As for distances on the Round Course, then single-figure stalls came out best in the Wolferton Stakes (1m2f), but double-figure stalls dominated over 1m4f, with runners fanning out down the middle in an attempt to avoid getting caught on the inside (low stalls). This became more pronounced in bigger fields, as can be seen:

1m4f (Royal Ascot 16+ runner fields 2014-2018)

10 races
Stalls 1-9: 0-74
Stalls 10-22: 10-103

BREEDING

Ascot Sires 2014-2019

SireW-R£15f-6f7f-1m1m2f- 1m4f1m6f- 2m5fGood/ Good-firmSoft/ Heavy
Dubawi31-184+50-1613-8016-712-1720-12111-63
Galileo25-197-500-44-4514-937-5514-13511-62
Oasis Dream22-134+5213-718-511-110-113-969-38
Shamardal19-135-145-3813-751-180-411-978-38
Sea The Stars16-81+11--4-207-455-1612-584-23
Exceed And Excel16-168+608-838-800-5--14-1232-45
Dark Angel16-195-137-759-1060-80-69-1317-64
Pivotal14-113-252-318-634-19--6-628-51
Frankel14-59-32-53-168-281-710-474-12
Kodiac14-187-748-1183-582-71-47-1387-49
Invincible Spirit13-146-538-635-720-90-28-1045-42
Acclamation11-157-996-965-510-10--8-1143-43
Dutch Art11-92-35-374-442-100-19-652-27
Iffraaj10-76-195-295-380-9--7-543-22
Mastercraftsman10-77-60-57-412-261-56-514-26

Frankel’s progeny led the way at the 2018 Royal Meeting courtesy of three winners – two of which came over middle-distances where his progeny returned a total of 8-28 here since 2014. The popular sire also has a host of interesting runners this time around, including Mehdaayih in the Ribblesdale Stakes (1m4f).

Both Mastercraftsman and Sea The Stars produced two winners apiece 12 months ago, with the latter’s relishing quick conditions. Should the weather improve and the ground rides good or firmer, then Sea The Stars’s runners should be noted across the five days, especially over longer trips. Both Crystal Ocean and Stradivarius could be adding to that record when seeking back-to-back wins in the Hardwicke and Gold Cup respectively, while Sea Of Class is well fancied for the Prince of Wales’s Stakes.

Dubawi’s stock produced just one winner at last year’s Ascot, but his long term record at the Berkshire venue is impressive, with a level stakes profit to boot. The areas to look out for his runners in terms of profit are over 1m2f-2m where they returned 18-83 (+£45), while Oasis Dream is another whose runners offer value at Ascot. Oasis Dream’s stock are all about speed, so fast conditions are very much appreciated. He was responsible for last year’s Royal Hunt Cup runner-up, Afaak, and it will be interesting to see if money arrives for him on his return following a gelding operation.

Similar comments apply to Exceed And Excel, whose runners are speedy and enjoy decent ground, therefore his daughter, Magnetic Charm, holds each each-way prospects in the Coronation Stakes at 20-1 for the Queen.

If the rain arrives, however, then runners by Shamardal, Pivotal and Kodiac should come into the reckoning on soft ground.

Crunching the numbers and analysing stats are just part of the battle against the bookies, as the market is where profits are made, especially for punters smashing into the favourite.

Royal Ascot Favourites - 2009-2018

Clear/joint favouriteW-R£1
Overall93-320+9



Non-handicap74-230+3
Handicap19-90+6



Group 132-81+9
Group 222-75-2
Group 312-36+8
Listed14-46+5



2yos17-64-6
3yos38-113+28
4yos26-85+3
5yos+12-57-16



Won last time61-196+10
Runner-up last time7-48-23
Third last time8-24+10
Fourth or worse last time9-31+8

(British form only)

The signs remain good for followers of the jolly with an overall profit accumulated during the last 10 Royal Ascots. What stands out is the excellent record 3yos produced for a healthy profit, while last time out winners that triumphed by a 1-10l margin struck collectively at 58-172 (+£21).

The following four tracks – Doncaster (4-9), Leopardstown (5-10), Newmarket July (5-6) and Newmarket Rowley (9-29) – also produced favourites with a higher strike-rate and profits for a collective return of 23-54 (+£34).

Second Favourites - 2009-2018

Clear/joint second favW-R£1
Overall46-313-50



Non-handicap37-219-26
Handicap9-94-24



Group 114-72-3
Group 215-74+5
Group 33-35-15
Listed5-50-20



2yos6-60-28
3yos18-114-10
4yos12-78-5
5yos+10-61-7



Won last time21-148-33
Runner-up last time8-54-4
Third last time4-28-4
Fourth or worse last time11-63+1

(British form only)

The fact favourites proved hard to beat at Royal Ascot made it tricky for punters to prosper by following second favourites, though a few filters applied can throw up some key areas. For instance, second favourites that were asked too much in moving up in class by two grades or more at Ascot connected at 10-107 (-£53), unlike second favourites given more realistic targets by going up in class by just one grade, staying at the same grade or dropping in class as they struck at 34-186 (+£14) – an example from the 2018 meeting was Hunting Horn, who ran in a Group 3 at Chester before winning the Group 3 Hampton Court at 5-1.

On the subject of tracks raced at prior to Ascot, then second favourites who arrived via one of the big festivals at Newmarket (Guineas), Epsom (Derby), Chester (May), Curragh (Guineas) and Newbury (Lockinge) produced an excellent royal record via a collective haul of 23-93 (+£35) – 26 were also placed, suggesting a sound platform for each-way punters.

The final word for backers of the second favourite goes to those with course experience, as runners with only 0-1 course runs were clearly overbet at 36-264, compared to runners with two or more previous Ascot appearances at 10-49 (+£10).

Big-priced winners

Unfortunately, not many secrets can be unveiled when it comes to backing juicy big-priced winners at the Royal Meeting, though ways into the puzzle involve checking Aidan O’Brien’s runners at 10-1 to 100-1. Considering the popularity of his runners, O’Brien still sent out eight winners here since 2009 at 10-1 or bigger for an overall profit (8-110 +£33), especially in races where the yard entered 2-3 runners.

Another possible approach could be following runners at 10-1 to 100-1 drawn 28 or higher on the Straight Course as they came in at 8-130 (+£22) – backing them each-way actually showed a bigger profit at +£39 as 14 were placed. Adding another filter by backing those beaten more than 2l last time tightened the return into 7-76 (+£59).

Placepot

The Placepot offers tremendous value for a bet that can last the entire card, while paying out a juicy dividend without having to find a winner! If that sounds tempting, then the Placepot could be worth a punt, especially as the average payout at Royal Ascot during the last five years was over £700.

Day one: £2,147 - £585 - £1,219 - £175 - £200 (average £865)
Day two: £151 - £157 - £165 - £301 - £86 (average £172)
Day three: £482 - £447 - £299 - £122 - £1,376 (average £545)
Day four: £403 - £49 - £1,251 - £139 - £84 (average £385)
Day five: £2,398 - £163 - £1,080 - £4,385 - £38 (average £1,612)

There were certain days that traditionally paid out lower dividends, but both day one and the final day paid well, with over £2k on each day in 2018. Therefore, punters seeking to nail the pot on two of the potential biggest days may want to check out the following handy pointers.

”Placepot Pointers” for day one (last 10 years)

2:30 Queen Anne Stakes

Of the 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…

25 were 4-5yos
21 ran in a Group 1 last time
14 arrived via Newbury (14)
5 were trained by A O Brien (5-12)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
10/3 or shorter: 9-14
4/1 to 6/1: 5-12
13/2 to 12/1: 7-20
14/1 or bigger: 8-66

Favourites/joint place record: 7-11
Second-favourites place record: 7-10

Tip: Well-fancied runners came out best.

3:05 Coventry Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

29 were 6/1 or shorter last time
28 won last time
27 ran in a maiden or Listed race last time
24 were Irish or American-bred
22 ran over 6f last time
7 were trained by A O Brien

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 10-15
5/1 to 10/1: 9-30
10/1 to 20/1: 8-50
22/1 or bigger: 3-82

Favourites/joint place record: 6-11
Second-favourites place record: 5-10

Tip: Stick with maiden or Listed form last time out.

3:40 King’s Stand Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

23 were 4-6yos
22 ran in a Group race last time
22 were 8/1 or shorter last time
20 either won or were beaten less than 2l last time
19 were officially rated 112 or higher
16 ran at Haydock (12) or Newmarket (Rowley) (4) last time

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/1 or shorter: 15-29
15/2 to 14/1: 6-32
16/1 to 20/1: 4-26
25/1 or bigger: 5-82

Favourites/joint place record: 4-11
Second-favourites place record: 6-9

Tip: Runners direct from Haydock did well.

4:20 St James’s Palace Stakes

Of the 27 placed runners during the last 10 years…

24 were officially rated 111 or higher
20 ran in a Group 1 last time
20 ran at the Curragh (10) or Newmarket (Rowley) (10) last time
19 ran over 1m or further last time
18 made the top three last time
17 ran at the Curragh or Newmarket Guineas meeting
10 were trained by A O Brien (7) and J Gosden (3)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/4 or shorter: 7-8
5/2 to 6/1: 8-19
13/2 to 14/1: 8-23
16/1 or bigger: 4-40

Favourites/joint place record: 8-11
Second-favourites place record: 4-9

Tip: Stick with classy runners officially rated 111 or higher.

5:00 Ascot Stakes

Of the 40 placed runners during the last 10 years…

39 were 4-7yos
36 ran in handicap last time
27 either won (20) or were beaten no more than 2l last time (7)
27 had never run at Ascot before
26 were officially rated 90-96
25 either won or were beaten less than 2l last time
20 ran over 2m-2m1f last time
10 were trained by W Mullins (7) and N Henderson (3)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
13/2 or shorter: 11-22
15/2 to 10/1: 10-34
11/1 to 20/1: 13-63
22/1 or bigger: 6-74

Favourites/joint place record: 6-11
Second-favourites place record: 3-10

Tip: Consider Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson’s runners.

5:35 Windsor Castle Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

28 were males
24 either won last time (14) or were beaten no more than 4l (10)
23 ran over 5f last time
12 were trained by A O Brien (3), R Fahey (3), C Appleby (2), W Ward (2), K Ryan (2)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
5/1 or shorter: 6-16
11/2 to 11/1: 1-29
12/1 to 25/1: 19-77
28/1 or bigger: 4-106

Favourites/joint place record: 4-10
Second-favourites place record: 2-12

Tip: Males did best.

Day Five

2:30 Chesham Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

28 made the top five last time
27 ran over 5f-6f last time
24 were 7/1 or shorter last time
23 had 1-2 runs in the UK
10 were trained by A O’Brien (6), M Johnston (2), J Gosden (2)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 12-19
5/1 to 8/1: 3-16
9/1 to 18/1: 11-39
20/1 or bigger: 4-68

Favourites/joint place record: 7-11
Second-favourites place record: 4-9

Tip: Stick with those that were fancied last time (7/1 or shorter).

3:05 Jersey Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

25 ran in a Group/Listed race last time
22 arrived via Newmarket Rowley (11), Curragh (5), Haydock (3), Newbury (3)
21 were officially rated 107-114
21 had 1-3 runs over 7f
18 had 2-5 UK runs
11 were trained by A O’Brien (5), Sir M Stoute (3), W Haggas (3)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 7-13
5/1 to 8/1: 11-27
9/1 to 16/1: 7-40
18/1 or bigger: 5-100

Favourites/joint place record: 6-11
Second-favourites place record: 4-11

Tip: Consider runners arriving from Newmarket (Rowley) last time.

3:40 Hardwicke Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

25 ran in a Group/Listed race last time
22 won 1-3 races over 1m4f
22 made the top three last time
22 were 9-2 or shorter last time
19 arrived via Chester (6), Newmarket Rowley (4), Ascot (3), Newbury (3), Sandown (3)
19 ran over 1m4f-1m5.5f
17 were officially rated 114-122
13 were trained by Sir M Stoute (7), J Gosden (3), A O’Brien (3)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
2/1 or shorter: 6-8
9/4 to 13/2: 4-18
7/1 to 12/1: 14-29
14/1 or bigger: 4-37

Favourites/joint place record: 6-10
Second-favourites place record: 4-11

Tip: Look for value in the 7/1 to 12/1 range.

4:20 Diamond Jubilee Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

27 were 3-5yos
25 ran in a Group/Listed race last time
22 had 0-1 previous runs at Ascot
17 were officially rated 116-132
15 arrived via York (8) and Ascot (7)
10 were trained by J Fanshawe (4), W Ward (3), A O’Brien (3)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
3/1 or shorter: 5-11
7/2 to 7/1: 13-21
15/2 to 16/1: 6-51
20/1 to 100/1: 9-76

Favourites/joint place record: 6-12
Second-favourites place record: 5-9

Tip: Runners from Ascot or York did well.

5:00 Wokingham Stakes (Handicap)

Of the 40 placed runners during the last 10 years…

37 were 4-6yos
37 had no more than four previous runs at Ascot
34 made the top seven last time
33 had a 0-8lb higher mark than last time
29 had a maximum of three handicap wins
28 arrived via Ascot (8), York (7), Newmarket Rowley (5), Haydock (4), Salisbury (4)
20 were 6/1 to 11/1 last time
10 were trained by R Fahey (3), K Ryan (3), H Candy (2), D Barron (2)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
15/2 or shorter: 6-17
8/1 to 16/1: 17-84
18/1 to 25/1: 11-68
28/1 to 100/1: 6-99

Favourites/joint place record: 3-11
Second-favourites place record: 3-10

Tip: Stick with 4-6yos.

5:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

30 were males
26 arrived via the Flat Turf
23 were officially rated 95 or higher
22 finished fifth or worse last time
13 were trained by W Mullins (5), A Balding (2), G Elliott (2), M Johnston (2), A O’Brien (2)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 12-22
5/1 to 11/1: 11-31
12/1 to 25/1: 3-39
28/1 to 100/1: 4-63

Favourites/joint place record: 5-11
Second-favourites place record: 5-10

Tip: Look for value via runners that never made the frame last time.


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