Trendspotting

Want to know which runners came up trumps in the Group races? What section of the draw proved most profitable on both the Straight and Round Course? Which trainer holds the best record in handicaps? Then, the 2020 Trendspotting Guide covers it all, including key jockeys, breeding, profiles and betting.

A lack of Flat form during what has been an unusual build-up to this year's Royal Ascot means punters may well have to put their faith in both trainers and jockeys to deliver the goods in Berkshire. Preparing a horse for Ascot this season is unlike any other in recent memory, but some handlers will enjoy the challenge, using both craft and patience to ensure their runners hit the ground running - fitness being key.

This approach in following trainers - whose excellent record in getting their string ready for this five-day festival - should be noted more than ever, and we start with a close-up of the most popular trainer of them all during the last 10 years here in Aidan O’Brien, who sent out 27 winners during the last five Royal Ascots.

TRAINERS – THE BIG SIX

Aidan O’Brien

Last five Royal Ascots:
2019: 5-53 (-£6)
2018: 4-52 (-£32)
2017: 6-36 (-£7)
2016: 7-26 (+£42)
2015: 5-18 (+£17)

It was another crowning achievement at the top of the Royal Leaderboard 12 months ago when Aidan O’Brien sent out five winners - two clear of Roger Varian, on three. Success in the Coventry took O’Brien’s record in that particular juvenile event to nine victories - his most successful event at Royal Ascot. The St James's Palace isn't too far behind on eight wins, though, following Circus Maximus’ triumph at 10-1. Value runners at double-figure odds also presented opportunities for backers too, as O’Brien’s Ascot runners in the 10-1 to 33-1 range delivered at 10-114 +£63 - of those 10 winners, eight avoided Group 2/3 & Listed races last time out (8-65 +£86). It also goes without saying that Ryan Moore proved a vital cog in pushing home the majority of the yard’s winners here for a small profit (26-127 +£3).

Best races (all-time): Coventry Stakes (9); St James’s Palace Stakes (8); Gold Cup (7); Queen’s Vase (6); Chesham Stakes (4); Jersey Stakes (3); Queen Anne Stakes (3); Prince of Wales’s Stakes (3); Coronation Stakes (3); Hardwicke Stakes (3); Norfolk Stakes (3); Hampton Court Stakes (3); Ribblesdale Stakes (3)

Positives:
Group 2, Group 3 & Listed races  (27-166 +£64)
Class 4 & Class 5 juvenile races last time out (9-57 +£62)
Beaten 1-4l last time (11-71 +£56)
First run over trip (16-90 +£31)
2yo’s (12-71 +£27)

Negatives:
Group 1 last time out (13-99 -£46)

John Gosden

Last five Royal Ascots:
2019: 2-25 (-£18)
2018: 4-27 (-£9)
2017: 2-31 (-£14)
2016: 2-22 (+£3)
2015: 2-18 (-£6)

Having recorded a double or better in nine of the last 10 years at this meeting, John Gosden clearly remains a man to be with across the five days on Ascot Heath. His partnership with Frankie Dettori can also be relied in the big races, as witnessed with Stradivarius in the last two Golds Cups, while the combo’s record in handicaps reads consistent. At the 2019 meeting, the Gosden/Dettori combo almost struck with both Turgenev (2nd of 28) in the Britannia and Ben Gracie (2nd of 19) in the Duke Of Edinburgh. Admittedly, both  fancies were well supported in the market, and there in lies the challenge regarding Gosden’s runners, as the bookies tightened their prices on him in recent times. From 2010-2014, following Gosden blind at this meeting returned a +£14 profit (13 winners), but from 2015-2019, backers of the yard returned a loss of -£44 (12 winners).

Best races: Wolferton Stakes (4); Ribblesdale Stakes (3); Prince of Wales’s Stakes (3); Britannia Stakes (3); King Edward VII Stakes (3); Jersey Stakes (2); Windsor Forest Stakes (2); Tercentenary Stakes (2); Coronation Stakes (2); Chesham Stakes (2); Royal Hunt Cup (2); St James’s Stakes (2); Gold Cup (2)

Positives:
2yo’s and 4yo’s  (13-62 +£38)
Non-Group/Listed last time (14-93 +£10)
Last time out winner (15-68 +£7)

Negatives:
3yo’s (10-117 -£54)
Non-Group/Listed (2-51 -£35)

Sir Michael Stoute

Last five Royal Ascots:
2019: 2-13 (-£1)
2018: 4-14 (+£16)
2017: 0-13 (-£0)
2016: 2-15 (+£4)
2015: 1-17 (-£4)

Following a rare blank for the yard at the 2017 meeting, Sir Michael Stoute hit back in style during the last two renewals, sending out six winners for a +£15 profit (6-27). His followers would have been on good terms with themselves following those results and no doubt looking forward to more of the same this time, especially if Frankie Dettori is booked to ride, as he was aboard both of Stoute’s winners here 12 months (from just three rides - the other, Rawdaa, finished runner-up). Both of last year’s winners also came in Group 2 events, and it indeed both the Group 2 and Group 3’s which proved profitable during the last 10 years here at 14-55 (+£28).

Best races: Hardwicke Stakes (11); King Edward VII Stakes (7); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (5); Prince of Wales’s Stakes (4); King George V Stakes (4); Coronation Stakes (4); Queen’s Vase (4); Jersey Stakes (4); Windsor Forest Stakes (3); Ribblesdale Stakes (2); Wolferton Stakes (2); Queen of Alexandra Stakes (2); Tercentenary Stakes (2) 

Positives:
Friday/Saturday (12-55 +£25)
1m4f (10-46 +£17)
Male (19-92 +£14)

Negatives:
Upped in trip from last time (5-58 -£31)
14-1 or bigger (0-28 -£28)
Tuesday (0-10 -£10)

Mark Johnston

Last five Royal Ascots:
2019: 2-28 (-£4)
2018: 2-24 (-£6)
2017: 2-22 (-£4)
2016: 0-20 (-£20)
2015: 2-20 (-£8)

Followers of patterns may have noticed that Mark Johnston recorded his seventh double during the last 10 years at Royal Ascot in 2019 - courtesy of both Baghdad and Raffle Prize hitting the target. Baghdad’s victory in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes also made it a fourth win in the race for Johnston, just one behind his five winners in the King George V Stakes (Handicap). In keeping things simple with following Johnston, then the overall rule is sticking with the stable’s more fancied runners in the top half of the market at 18-1 or shorter.

Best races: Queen’s Vase (7); King George V Stakes (5); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (4); Hardwicke Stakes (4); Ascot Gold Cup (3); Chesham Stakes (3); King Edward VII Stakes (3); Sandringham Handicap (2); Queen Alexandra Stakes (2)

Positives: 

7-2 to 18-1: 15-89 (+£36)
Queen’s Vase: 7-30 (+£13)
French or German-bred: 4-15 (+£15)

Negatives:
20-1 or bigger: (0-121 -£121)
Tuesday: 1-25 (-£18)

Wesley Ward

Last five Royal Ascots:
2019: 0-7 (-£7)
2018: 1-9 (-£3)
2017: 2-10 (+£15)
2016: 1-6 (-£3)
2015: 2-9 (+£10)

Despite the Coronavirus epidemic, Wesley Ward is still hoping to send horses over to Ascot, where he has enjoyed amazing success down the years - his skill in sprints nearly saw a fourth Queen Mary 12 months when Kamari was runner-up. Frankie Dettori (2), Ryan Moore (1) and Jamie Spencer (1) partnered four of Ward’s winners, so it will be interesting to see who is booked this time around should the American jockeys not travel over. Although bookies have latched onto Ward’s talents, a profit was still returned by following his runners blind since 2010 at 8-58 (+£6).

Best races: Queen Mary Stakes (3 wins); Norfolk Stakes (2); Windsor Castle Stakes (2)

Positives:
Good to firm: 6-36 (+£19)

Negatives:
Stalls 1-5 (1-17 -£11)
Friday: 0-11 (-£11)

Charlie Appleby

Last five Royal Ascots:
2019: 3-22 (-£12)
2018: 2-20 (-£7)
2017: 2-23 (+£15)
2016: 1-20 (-£13)
2015: 1-9 (+£1)

Charlie Appleby’s winners here continue on the rise, including a treble in 2019 when Blue Point won the King’s Stand on the first day (5-2), before adding the Diamond Jubilee on the final day (6-4). Appleby’s progress for Godolphin hasn’t gone unnoticed by both bookies and punters, though, as the Newmarket handler showed an overall loss of -£34 at the meeting. One possible way of sticking on the right side of the yard is by avoiding runners from the list of negatives below - for instance, he has yet to strike with a female in 18 attempts, while those at 25-1 or bigger flopped on 20 occasions.

Best races: King’s Stand Stakes (2 wins)

Positives: 

Same or upped one or two grades in class from last time: 9-66 (+£11)

Negatives:
Wednesday: 0-22 (-£22)
No win in last three runs: 0-21 (-£21) 4yo’s: 1-27 (-£20)
25-1 or bigger: 0-20 (-£20)
Females: 0-18 (-£18)
1m6f+: 0-14 (-£14)

BEST OF THE REST

You can’t keep that man, Willie Mullins, out of the limelight at big festivals, and he remains on the right side of profit at Ascot. Mullins may have missed the target 12 months ago, but he only sent four runners - two of which were runner-up (7-1) and third (10-3). The runner-up, Buildmeupbuttercup, came direct via the jumps, an approach that produced four of Mullins’ six Ascot winners (4-15 +£16), compared to the two winners that came via the Flat last time (2-19 -£11).

Indeed, it is worth looking out for Irish raiders that hail from the following yards, as they proved more than capable of sending winners to Royal Ascot during the last 10 years, namely Dermot Weld (4-21 +£18), Edward Lynam (4-12 +£11) and David Marnane (2-11 +£40).

Be Wary Of…

Ralph Becket: 2-55
David Simcock: 2-61
Mick Channon: 2-97
Michael Bell: 1-52

JOCKEYS – THE BIG FOUR

Ryan Moore

Last five Royal Ascots:
2019: 5-29 (£0)
2018: 5-30 (-£9)
2017: 6-30 (-£1)
2016: 6-29 (-£7)
2015: 9-29 (+£30)

It was “Moore” of the same for the leading Royal Ascot jockey last year when leaving the meeting with another five winners. That haul made it six consecutive years in which Ryan Moore recorded a minimum of five winners at the fixture, and it doesn’t look like stopping.

While the majority of his winners came for Aidan O’Brien for a small profit (26-127 +£3), his record for Willie Mullins reads more impressive at 5-12 (+£15), with four placed. Moore also teamed up with Mark Johnston on Baghdad to land his fourth Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, to go alongside his four wins in each of the Hardwicke and Queen’s Vase.  

Baghdad was also backed into favouritism - an area that pointed-up one of the main clues towards Moore’s best profits, as those priced 10-1 or shorter at Ascot struck at 50-216 (+£23), compared to those in the 11-1 or bigger bracket at 2-73 (-£45).

Best races (all-time): Queen’s Vase (4 wins); Hardwicke Stakes (4); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (4); Ribblesdale Stakes (3); Ascot Stakes (3); Queen of Alexandra Stakes (3); Hampton Court Stakes (3); Chesham Stakes (3); Coventry Stakes (3)

Positives:
10-1 or shorter (at Ascot) but lost last time: 24-112 (+£36)
Good to firm: 33-159 (+£21)
Arrived via the Newmarket Guineas meeting: 6-18 (+£14)
Round Course: 32-139 (+£11)

Negatives:
Good ground or softer (19-130 -£-41)

Frankie Dettori

Last five Royal Ascots:
2019: 7-27 (+£25)
2018: 4-23 (-£5)
2017: (Didn’t ride)
2016: 4-23 (-£1)
2015: 3-20 (+£5)

Ask any punter which jockey they'd want riding for them at Ascot and the majority may well reply “Frankie Dettori”. The popular Italian was the man of the meeting in 2019 when riding an astonishing seven-timer across the five days to put his followers +£25 in profit to level stakes. Clearly, there is still plenty to come from the 49-year-old, whose partnership with John Gosden shone down the years - the pair combined for six winners here during the last two renewals.

While Dettori rides winners here not matter what the situation thrown at him, it’s worth noting he boasts a particularly fine record in fields of up to nine runners at Royal Ascot. WIth less traffic in his way, Dettori struck at 9-30 (+£31).

Best races: Gold Cup (7); Ribblesdale Stakes (7); Queen Anne Stakes (6); Chesham Stakes (4); Sandringham Handicap (4); King Edward VII Stakes (4); Norfolk Stakes (4); Prince of Wales’s Stakes (4)

Positives:
Dettori rode last time: 16-79 (+49)
Group 1 and Group 2: 19-101 (+£27)
Good to soft/Soft ground: 13-50 (+£27)
17/2 or shorter: 23-103 (+£27)
Newmarket last time: 7-29 (+£24)

Negatives:
Handicaps: 3-53 (-£13)
10/1 or bigger: 3-96 (-£33)

William Buick

Last five Royal Ascots:
2019: (Didn’t ride)
2018: 3-24 (-£6)
2017: 4-24 (+£23)
2016: 2-26 (-£11)
2015: 2-22 (-£5)

Having been sidelined at the 2019 meeting, William Buick will be keen to get back in the winner’s enclosure here - an area he visited in each of the previous eight years. While enjoying a good relationship with John Gosden during that time, Buick’s source of winners these days comes via Charlie Appleby, though a stronger clue involves runners he rode last time, as they hit the jackpot at Ascot to the tune of 20-112 (+£59). 

Best races: King Edward VII Stakes (4); Tercentenary Stakes (2); Wolferton Stakes (2); Duke of Cambridge Stakes (2); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (2)

Positives:
1m2f-1m4f: 12-59 (+£41)
8-14 runners: 15-75 (+£39)

Negatives:
22/1 or bigger: 0-45 (-£45)

James Doyle

Last five Royal Ascots:
2019: 3-27 (-£17)
2018: 2-22 (-£7)
2017: 2-22 (-£12)
2016: 1-21 (-£10)
2015: 1-27 (-£1)

Last year’s Ascot meeting went very well for James Doyle, as he left with his first treble since recording his first here in 2013. All three victories came for Charlie Appleby - when William Buick was absent - so he’ll need to do well in matching last year’s feat this time around, while punters should note Doyle didn’t record a level stakes profit during his last five visits to Royal Ascot.

Best races: Prince of Wales's Stakes (2); St. James's Palace Stakes (2)

Positives:
Wednesday (6-24 +£64)
1m-1m2f (7-49 +£37)

Negatives:
1m4f-2m5f: 1-44 (-£38)

BEST OF THE REST

It’s worth checking the market to see if Adam Kirby has a chance on a live runner at 20-1 or shorter, as he delivered  on such runners here (7-54 +£25), while his partnership with Clive Cox also proved profitable (5-41 +£4). Both Andrea Atzeni and Silvestre De Sousa struck six times apiece at Royal Ascot. Atzeni recorded doubles in 2019 and 2018, and each of his six winners returned at 14-1 or shorter, while De Sousa did best away from Group races at 5-55 (+£12).

Think twice about backing an apprentice jockey, however, as they struck just twice for a huge loss (2-146 -£128).

 PROFILES

Two-year-olds

With this year’s juvenile events at Royal Ascot set to provide trickier puzzles than normal owing to a lack of recent form on offer, the use of stats may help pinpoint a few handy angles.

Royal Ascot Juvenile Races 2010-2019

Last time outW-R£1
Won42-564-197
Runner-up3-157-137
Third3-102-66
Fourth4-67-5
Fifth or worse1-89-74



No. of UK runsW-R£1
No run7-89-31
One run26-340-128
Two runs15-377-233
Three runs8-182-94
Four runs+4-81-25



BredW-R£1
GB17-372-212
IRE27-538-289
USA14-126-13
FR2-24+12



DrawW-R£1
Lowest quarter10-258-160
Low-middle quarter13-291-200
High-middle quarter16-278-119
Highest quarter21-242-31



OddsW-R£1
5/2 or shorter13-36+2
11/4 to 8/126-192-25
17/2 to 20/120-317+10
22/1 or bigger1-524-498



TrainerW-R£1
A O’Brien12-71+27
J Gosden5-15+26



StallionW-R£1
Scat Daddy5-17+12
Zoffany4-11+21
Exceed And Excel3-31
+6
New Approach3-6
+7
Oasis Dream2-18+4
War Front2-17+21

(UK form only)

The above trends highlight some key information regarding two-year-old events - none more so than the poor record of runners at odds of 22/1, as they struck just once from 524 bets! Despite a level stakes loss, last time out winning form also proved key, while being drawn in the middle to high section of the draw offered an edge. Both Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden recorded eyecathing profits, which is even more impressive considering the popularity of such big yards - clearly, the bookies underestimated their youngsters. And, should any system backers be wondering what the outcome was by following the aforementioned criteria - a last time out juvenile winner, lining-up at Ascot priced 20/1 or shorter from a middle to high draw - then the return during the last 10 years was 24-180 (+£29), showing a profit in seven of the last eight years.

GROUP RACES 2010-2019

Group 1

Category W-R £1
Overall 75-932 -409



Group 1 last time 33-248 -54
Group 2, 3 last time 27-358 -164
Listed last time 4-147 -126
Non-Group/Listed last time 1-62 -36



Previous Group 1 winner 33-141 -23
Never won a Group 1 42-791 -386



Won last time 36-223 -76
Beaten last time 30-594 -286
Abroad last time 9-115 -47



Odds W-R £1
11/8 or shorter 18-30 +3
6/4 to 6/1 34-167 -4
13/2 to 14/1 17-239 -52
16/1 or bigger 6-496 -356



GB-bred 26-316 -115
IRE-bred 34-393 -188
USA-bred 5-96 -60
FR-bred 5-61 -8



C Cox 3-19 +15
E Lynam 3-10 +9
R Cowell 2-11 +18
D Weld 2-7 +17
J-C Rouget 2-6 +5
W Ward 2-6 +10
J Fanshawe 2-9 +22



Round Course
Lowest quarter stalls 7-101 -50
Low-middle quarter stalls 11-120 -66
High-middle quarter stalls 10-106 -65
Highest quarter stalls 12-91 +6



Straight Course
Lowest quarter stalls 8-123 -3
Low-middle quarter stalls 12-141 -58
High-middle quarter stalls 7-134 -102
Highest quarter stalls 8-116 -71

(UK form only)

While some of the above stats may seem obvious, they do go some way to confirming the importance of keeping onside of the right criteria, and more importantly avoiding losers. For instance, of the 62 Group 1 runners at Royal Ascot who arrived via a Listed event since 2010, just one triumphed. Similarly, siding with runners boasting previous Group 1-winning form remained vital, while those drawn middle to high on the Round Course also enjoyed and edge. Well backed fancies in Group 1’s at 11/8 or shorter also returned an overall profit.

Group 2

Category W-R £1



Overall 73-964 -418



Group 1 last time 10-76 -15
Group 2 last time 4-46 +2
Group 3 last time 16-114 -25
Listed last time 17-216 -61
Non-Group/Listed last time 22-469 -293



Previous Group 2 winner 9-53 -2
Never won a Group 2 64-911 -416



Won last time 40-457 -159
Beaten last time 29-462 -232
Abroad last time 4-43 -25



2/1 or shorter 11-28 0
9/4 to 6/1 32-126 +23
13/2 to 11/1 19-222 -49
16/1 to 25/1 11-308 -111
28/1 or bigger 0-280 -280



GB-bred 28-356 -160
IRE-bred 34-469 -196
USA-bred 11-89 -12
FR-bred 0-26 -26



Sir M Stoute 10-39 +20
A O’Brien 13-87 +5



Straight Course
Lowest quarter stalls 9-151 -53
Low-middle quarter stalls 6-178 -125
High-middle quarter stalls 14-166 -64
Highest quarter stalls 11-140 -43

(UK form only)

A couple of standout stats to bear in mind when punting in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot, including the trainer, as both Sir Michael Stoute and Aidan O’Brien used these races to good advantage, offering value in the market in the process. Runners overall in the 9/4 to 6/1 bracket offered a good deal. However, two trends to be wary of concern French-bred runners and those arriving via a non-Group/Listed event last time. While the latter produced 22 winners, the strike-rate was only 5%, compared to Group/Listed runners last time at 10%.

Group 3

Category W-R £1
Overall 33-524 -224



Group 1 last time 8-46 +44
Group 2 last time 0-13 -13
Group 3 last time 4-41 -18
Listed last time 4-143 -94
Non-Group/Listed last time 14-246 -141



Previous Group 3 winner 3-19 +4
Never won a Group 3 30-505 -228



Won last time 14-197 -105
Runner-up or third last time 17-268 -140
Fourth or worse last time 5-150 -87
Abroad last time 3-35 -2



7/2 or shorter 9-25 +3
4/1 to 8/1 15-115 -8
17/2 to 25/1 9-210 -45
28/1 or bigger 0-174 -174



GB-bred 12-179 -68
IRE-bred 11-244 -165
USA-bred 7-78 -1
FR-bred 2-16 +8



R Fahey 2-13 +19
A O’Brien 6-41 +14
C Hills 2-11 +13
Sir M Stoute 4-16 +7

(UK form only)

While Group 3 events may not get the attention of their Group 1 peers, from a punting perspective the odds still pay the same as in the top echelon, and that’s all that counts. It’s also the aforementioned Group 1 performers who provide a clue to making a few quid in Group 3's, as runners who ran in a Group 1 last time before dropping down gained compensation at 8-46 (+£44) - both Hunting Horn and Expert Eye struck at 8/1 and 5/1 in recent years. Fancied runners at 7/2 or shorter also came out in front, while as in the Group 2 events, both Aidan O’Brien and Sir Michael Stoute struck once again. One approach to avoid is looking for an outsider in a Group 3 at 28/1 or bigger, as they blanked from 174 bets.

HANDICAPS 2010-2019

Last time out W-R £1
Won 31-459 -212
Runner-up 20-252 +62
Third and fourth 15-397 -172
Fifth to tenth 11-533 -369
Eleventh or worse 3-157 -91



0-1 previous handicap wins 36-1032 -573
2-3 previous handicap wins 37-496 +6
4+ previous handicap wins 10-309 -178



Favourites/Joint-favs 19-89 +5
40/1 or bigger0-353 -353



6-10lb higher than last time 24-219 +35

There will be plenty of punters licking their lips at the inclusion of more handicaps at this year’s Royal Ascot - 14 to be precise, including consolation races for both the Royal Hunt Cup and Wokingham. Knowing the secret to profiting via these tricky, big-runner races is no easy task, but there are several angles which may nudge punters in the right direction. The first surrounds form, as last time out runner-up’s gained profitable compensation here, while runners with 2-3 previous handicap wins also came out in front. Progressive handicappers raised 6-10lb from last time also struck effectively in Berkshire, including Thanks Be in last year’s Sandringham Stakes at 33/1, off a mark of 84 having been rated 78 the outing before.

Headgear

While the application of headgear can sometimes be deemed a negative, there were plenty of Royal Ascot victors that entered the winner’s enclosure supporting the desired equipment which kept them focused on track.  

Blinkers: 13-262 (5%) -£136
Cheekpieces: 18-314 (6%) -£117
Hood: 10-136 (7%) -£6
Visor: 2-99 (2%) -£60

The application of a hood seemed most effective, more so when a hood was applied for the first time in the UK, as they struck at 5-30 (+£20) - both John Gosden and Willie Mullins used this tactic with Monarchs Glen (8/1) and Lagostovegcas (10/1) respectively, in recent years.

Penalties in handicaps

It's difficult enough winning a race at Royal Ascot, let alone with extra weight. The stats confirm such a task too, as only three triumphed from the 45 that attempted the feat since 2010:

3lb: 0-1 (-£1) 4lb: 1-4 (+£9) 5lb: 1-36 (-£25)

The latest to try and carry the extra weight was Danzeno, who managed a creditable third in the Wokingham having won at Nottingham earlier in the month.

ASCOT SPECIALISTS

There are certain horses who produce their very best at certain tracks, whether it’s because the course is local to their yard, or that the configurations suits their style of running. Ascot is no different, as there were plenty of horses who turned up the heat when setting foot on the famous track, including the following names who, if still in training, should be noted at the 2020 renewal.

Blue Point - 5 wins 1 placed from 6 runs
Raising Sand - 4 wins 4 placed from 14 runs
Cape Byron - 4 wins 1 placed from 8 runs
Stradivarius - 4 wins 0 placed from 6 runs
Moonraker - 3 wins 1 placed from 11 runs
Librisa Breeze - 3 wins 1 placed from 9 runs
The Tin Man - 3 wins 0 placed from 10 runs
Addeybb - 2 wins 1 placed from 4 runs
Lord Glitters - 2 wins 3 placed from 7 runs
Accidental Agent - 2 wins 1 placed from 8 runs
Texting - 2 wins from 3 runs
Ripp Orf - 2 wins 4 placed from 8 runs
Sextant - 2 wins 1 placed from 4 runs
Tis Marvellous - 2 wins 2 placed from 7 runs
Tabarrak - 2 wins 1 from 5 runs
Normandy Barriere - 2 wins 4 placed from 13 runs
Crystal Ocean - 2 wins 4 placed from 6 runs
Louie de Palma - 2 wins 1 placed from 5 runs
Pallasator - 2 wins 2 placed from 8 runs
Cleonte - 2 wins 0 placed from 7 runs Erissimus Maximus - 2 wins 0 placed from 4 runs
Intense Romance - 2 wins 0 placed from 3 runs
Cliffs Of Capri - 2 wins 0 placed from 4 runs

FORM & TRIALS

This year’s Royal Ascot will be like no other. Not only will there de a lack of well-dressed racegoers at the five-day meeting, but also a lack of form for punters to study, courtesy of Flat racing having only returned on 1 June. Relying on trials and stepping-stones traditionally used for Ascot won’t be as straightforward this year, especially as the English, Irish and French Guineas all took place within a 12-day period, with the Irish versions staged just a few days before Ascot gets underway. Some horses may be able to handle a quick turnaround, but others could “bounce” from their reappearance outing, suggesting punters should tread carefully when contemplating runners to have already raced this season.

THE DRAW

Punters who enjoy big-field puzzles to solve at Royal Ascot are in for a betting bonanza this year, as a number of additional races such as the Royal Hunt Silver Cup and Wokingham Silver Stakes have been added to the schedule. With such races set to be staged on the famous Straight Course - where a maximum of 24 runners will be allowed to line-up - the draw will again have a massive say.

Straight Course (5f-1m)

ASCOT 2019 - (May to October)

Distance No. of Runners Ground Winning stall Runner-up Third
5f 25 Good to soft 25 18 23
5f 21Soft 24 22 23
5f 19 Good to firm 20 15 8
5f 17 Soft 3 12 1






6f 17 Good 3 12 7
6f 25 Good to soft 14 16 3
6f 17 Good to firm9 11 10
6f 26 Good to firm 10 13 17
6f 16 Good to firm 15 8 17
6f 16 Good to firm 17 15 13
6f 17 Heavy 4 10 7



7f 26 Good to soft 10 22 4
7f 18 Good 8 7 4
7f 23 Good to soft 21 23 27
7f 16 Good to firm 2 9 15
7f 17 Soft 17 9 6



1m 20 Good to firm 5 3 13
1m 16 Good 1 7 13
1m 17 Soft 11 3 2
1m 28 Soft 21 18 32
1m 28 Good to soft 29 22 18
1m 27 Good 4 11 18
1m 16 Heavy 12 10 8
1m 20 Heavy 21 20 4

Summary:
Good to firm: 2 low 2 middle 3 high     
Good: 3 low 1 middle         
Soft: 2 low 3 middle 8 high

The overall view looking at last year’s big-field races at Ascot was that high stalls (nearer the stands’ side) enjoyed more of an advantage when the ground came up soft, while low to middle stalls (middle to far side of the straight) held sway on better ground (good/good to firm).

As for the recent history of specific Straight Course events at Royal Ascot, then some notable patterns developed since 2015.

Royal Ascot - (2019-2015)

Race/Year 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Coventry 6f 3/17 gd 22/23 gf9/18 gf 13/18 sft 10/17 gf
King's Stand 5f 1/12 gd 10/14 gf 18/17 gf 8/17 sft 3/18 gf
Queen Mary 5f 25/25 gs 16/22 gf 20/23 gf 14/17 sft 20/20 gf
Royal Hunt Cup 1m 21/28 s 22/30 gf 26/29 gf 4/28 sft 11/30 gf
Windsor Castle 5f 24/21 s 22/28 gf 12/22 gf 1/22 sft 6/27 gf
Britannia 1m 29/28 gs 15/30 gf 3/29 gf 12/28 sft 11/28 gf
Albany Stakes 6f 14/25 gs 15/18 gf 13/20 gf 16/16 gs 13/18 gf
Sandringham 1m 4/27 gd 5/23 gf 11/24 gf 17/21 sft 14/17 gf
Jersey 7f 8/18 gd 8/21 gf 10/20 gf 7/19 sft 9/16 gf
Diamond Jubilee 6f 9/17 gf 11/12 gf 3/19 gf 3/9 gs 6/15 gf
Wokingham 6f 10/26 gf 16/28 gf 1/27 gf 28/28 gs 21/25 gf

gf = good to firm; gd = good; gs = good to soft; s = soft

The 2019 meeting also demonstrated how draw biases can change throughout the five days, especially last year when the ground changed. The first day on good ground saw two low stalls win both big-field races on the straight prior to rain arriving on the second day when high numbers won all three races on Wednesday. High stalls were also favoured with the ground still riding soft for the Britannia on Thursday and the first race on Friday (Albany), before sunshine dried the straight out for the remaining four races when low/middle stalls triumphed.

As for the Round Course, then the following four races which traditionally attract big fields threw up the following results during the last five years.

Round Course (1m2f-2m4f)

Royal Ascot - (2019-2015)

Race/Year 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Ascot Stakes 2m4f 18/19 gs 1/19 gf 11/18 gf 2/20 sft 19/19 gf
Wolferton 1m2f 12/16 s 6/16 gf 5/16 gf 5/15 gs 7/13 gf
King George V 1m4f 8/16 s 16/18 gf 22/18 gf 11/16 sft 20/17 gf
Duke of Edinburgh 1m4f 12/19 gd 14/17 gf 19/19 gf 19/19 gs 21/17 gf

gf = good to firm; gd = good; gs = good to soft; s = soft

 Low to middle stalls came out best in the Wolferton Stakes (1m2f), with last year’s renewal falling to a double-figure stall on genuine soft ground. This bias has been reliable for quite a while, as a further glance back shows that by backing stalls 3 to 7 in the Wolferton since 2002 produced 12 winners for a level stakes profit of +£64.

As for the 1m4f events, then middle to numbers took over in both the King George V and Duke of Edinburgh. These races tended to see runners fanning out down the middle when hitting the straight in an attempt to avoid getting caught on the inside (low stalls) - a tactic that became more pronounced in bigger fields:

King George V and Duke of Edinburgh (2006-2019)

Stalls W-R % £1
Lowest quarter of stalls 0-116 0% -116
Low-middle quarter of stalls 4-130 3% -94
Middle-high quarter of stalls 10-122 8% -50
Highest quarter of stalls 13-106 12% +87

Since the new era of Ascot when the main grandstand was opened in 2006, the stats above confirm that both the King George V and Duke of Edinburgh over 1m4f favoured higher drawn runners. More importantly, was the incredibly poor record of those drawn very low in stalls 1-5, as they failed to produce a winner from 26 races.

As for any patterns over the 2m4f distance of the Ascot Stakes, then there didn’t appear any strong bias. If pushed, then slight favour would go towards the highest drawn quarter of runners (for instance, stalls 16-20 in a 20-runner field), as they achieved both the best-rate (8%) and place record (28%).

BREEDING

Ascot Sires 2015-2019

Sire W-R £15f-6f7f-1m 1m2f-1m4f 1m6f-2m5fGood/Good-firm Soft/Heavy
Dubawi 29-185 +2 0-12 12-81 15-74 2-18 18-113 11-72
Galileo 27-205 -38 0-4 5-45 14-101 8-55 14-117 13-88
Shamardal 24-136 -13 8-37 15-78 1-17 0-4 15-89 9-47
Sea The Stars 20-90 +14 0-0 4-24 10-47 6-19 12-55 8-35
Oasis Dream 19-131 +31 10-70 8-47 1-12 0-2 10-87 9-44
Frankel 16-90 -16 2-5 3-30 9-42 2-13 11-58 5-32
Invincible Spirit 16-138 -35 11-65 5-68 0-5 0-0 12-96 4-42
Exceed And Excel 14-144 +16 8-75 6-67 0-2 0-0 12-105 2-39
Kodiac 13-194 -84 8-121 2-62 2-7 1-4 6-133 7-61
Pivotal 13-111 -28 2-32 7-60 3-18 1-1 4-58 9-53
Dark Angel 12-203 -53 5-81 7-107 0-9 0-6 7-129 5-74
Nathaniel 10-41 +14 0-0 1-8 6-21 3-12 5-29 5-12
Mastercraftsman 10-77 -6 0-3 7-39 2-27 1-8 6-50 4-27

The above list of sires should be noted during Royal Ascot, especially when their runners face optimum ground/distance conditions, as pointed up in the following lowdown.

Dubawi’s progeny were equally effective on different ground at Ascot, though distance-wise they proved best over trips of 1m2f-1m4f where they returned 15-74 (+£38). The only concern is that while his runners here returned a profit seven years out of eight from 2010 to 2017, the last two years saw a drop in both strike-rate and loss.

Galileo’s followers at Ascot may have struggled making a profit, despite a high number of winners at the famous track during the last five years. However, there were profits to be made when stamina was at a premium around Ascot, especially on good to soft ground (17-88 +£39).

Shamardal’s stock are all about speed, especially over 7f here where they returned 8-23 (+£37). His male runners also fared best (16-83 (+£2), while 4-5yo’s also represented good odds in the market (12-50 +£22).

Sea The Stars’ runners are quite versatile, having won from 7f-2m4f at Ascot, while scoring on both soft and good to firm ground. His record here also improved from 2015 when having just two winners, to a career best of seven winners here in 2019 (2-3-4-4-7). Overall, a solid profile and a stallion whose runners should be noted.

Oasis Dream experienced a hit-and-miss record  from his progeny at Ascot, but with a healthy level stakes profit shown, his runners were clearly underestimated. While his offspring handle good to firm well, the odds on his runners may have been pushed out when the rain arrived, as his runners’ record was 9-42 (+£36) on good to soft/soft here.

Frankel only has to be mentioned in the same breath as Ascot, and the memories of him winning his final career race come flooding back, and his progeny have served him well in Berkshire. The popularity of his offspring saw them overbet in the market, especially in Group/Listed events, but away from them they struck here at 11-36 (+£19).

Invincible Spirit struck on 10 occasions with his Ascot runners in the last two years alone, though profiting via them proved tricky. His sprinters did best.

Exceed And Excel, whose runners are speedy and enjoy decent ground, boasts a profitable record at Ascot, though his numbers dwindled in recent times having blanked here in 2019 and 2018 (0-43).

Kodiac has a similar profile to exceed And Excel in that his progeny enjoy the shorter trips, but their overall strike-rate dropped at Ascot during the last two years, winning just twice for a big loss (2-76 -£66).

Pivotal is a sire whose runners have long been associated with soft ground, and that remains the case at Ascot. Indeed, his stock connected at 9-49 (+£4) on good to soft/soft here, compared to 4-58 (-£29) on better ground. They also struggled in Group events (1-29 -£23).

Dark Angel is a another of the older sires whose numbers wobbled here in recent times. Having produced nine winners at Ascot victors from 2015-2017, that number dropped to just 3-78 (-£66) during the last two years.

Nathaniel is very much a sire to keep at the top of the list throughout Royal Ascot. As one of the newer stallions, he hasn’t hung around in making a good impression, especially here at Ascot where he boasts a healthy 25% strike-rate, and +£14 level stakes profit. His progeny are also versatile in terms of trip/ground, though siding with his runners over 1m4f-2m proved best (9-30 +£21).

Mastercraftsman has a bizarre record at Ascot unlike any other stallion. Incredibly, all of his 10 winners sired here since 2015 were females (10-42 +£29), compared to males at 0-35. Some of those victories include the Duke of Cambridge, Ribblesdale, Coronation and Sandringham Stakes, so it goes without saying any of his females who pop-up this time around should be taken seriously.

BETTING

Royal Ascot Favourites - 2010-2019

Clear/joint favouriteW-R£1
Overall94-321+11



Non-handicap75-232+6
Handicap19-89+5



Group 130-82+1
Group 224-76+3
Group 313-36+13
Listed13-44+2



2yos18-64-1
3yos36-114-19
4yos26-80+8
5yos+14-63-15



Won last time63-194+19
Runner-up last time7-52-27
Third last time9-23+14
Fourth or worse last time5-27
-3

(UK form only)

Favourite backers can take heart from the above stats prior to doing battle over this year's marathon at Royal Ascot, with certain areas stronger than others. For instance, 3-4yo’s delivered for a joint-level stakes profit of +£27, including the likes of Baghdad, who was also a last time out winner prior to Ascot. Indeed, punters looking for a simple system should note favourites than won last time out, more so those offering meat on the bone in the 7-4 to 6-1 range (43-145 +£30). Favourites that won last time out at Newmarket also stood out, striking with a healthy win-rate here at 10-19 (+£21).

As for which events proved kind to favourites at Ascot, then a glance back in the history books (since 1997) show the following races could be worth targeting:

Favourites Record
Coventry Stakes: 12-26 (+£20)
Sandringham Handicap Stakes: 8-27 (+£16)
Coronation Stakes: 10-28 (+£11)
King Edward VII Stakes: 10-23 (+£11)
Queen Mary Stakes: 9-25 (+£10)

Be wary of…
Royal Hunt Cup: 1-27 (-£22)
King’s Stand Stakes: 2-27 (-£19)
Buckingham Palace Stakes: 0-16 (-£16)

Second Favourites - 2010-2019

Clear/joint second favW-R£1
Overall51-318-34



Non-handicap44-225+4
Handicap7-93-38



Group 115-75-3
Group 218-76+21
Group 33-35-15
Listed7-49-9



2yos8-60-18
3yos20-117-1
4yos9-74-20
5yos+14-67+5



Won last time21-150-41
Runner-up last time9-58-2
Third last time7-30+9
Fourth or worse last time12-61+9

(UK form only)

Considering the jollie's success at this meeting, second favourites did well to return a blind profit in non-handicaps, with Group 2’s proving especially kind. One such example was Star Catcher, who won the Ribblesdale 12 months ago having finished third the time before at Newbury - in fact, second favourites outside the top two last time offered value at Ascot (19-91 +£18).

As for which events saw second favourites strike at Ascot, then a glance back in the history books (since 1997) show the following races could be worth targeting:

Second Favourites Record
Prince of Wales’s Stakes: 9-24 (+£16)
Queen’s Vase: 8-28 (+£16)
Jersey Stakes: 6-27 (+£16)
Duke of Cambridge Stakes: 5-15 (+£12)
Norfolk Stakes: 7-23 (+£11)
Queen Anne Stakes: 7-28 (+£10)

Be wary of…
Duke of Edinburgh Stakes: 1-25 (-£20)
Buckingham Palace Stakes: 0-13 (-£13)
Wokingham: 2-29 (-£13)
Albany Stakes: 1-18 (-£12)

Big-priced winners

During the last 10 years, there were 34 winners priced at 20-1 or bigger at Royal Ascot. At first, that may offer hope of hitting it big, but considering 2466 runners were required to trigger those 34 winners - in other words, a 1% strike-rate (-£1598) - it is clear how difficult the task was. Trying to break down the stats and highlight areas in which to seek big-hitting opportunities was no easy task either, though it could help to concentrate the areas in which the majority of big-priced winners at 20-1 or bigger appeared:

20-1 to 33-1: 34-1394 (2.44%), compared to 40-1 or bigger: 0-1072 (0%)
15-29 runners: 31-1828 (1.7% -£1028), compared to 14 runners or less: 3-546 (0.55%)
3-6yo’s: 27-1636 (1.65% -£925), compared to other ages: 7-830 (0.84%)
Day two onwards: 30-1961 (1.53% -£1190), compared to day one: 4-505 (0.79%)
First to fifth in previous three runs: 34-2350 (1.45%), compared to sixth or worse: 0-116 (0%)
Not upped in trip by 2.5f or more from last time: 30-2132 (1.41%), compared to rest 1-220 (0.45%)
(UK form only)

Combining all the above pointers into a system produced five winners at last year’s meeting (5-51 +£82) and four winners in 2017 (4-66 +£33), so there are possibilities in following such criteria.

The final mention goes to both Aidan O’Brien (4-68 +£31) and David O’Meara (3-54 +£32), who sent out seven winners between them at 20-1 to 33-1 here since 2010, so don't discount their outsiders.

Placepot

The Placepot offers tremendous value for a bet that can last the entire card, while possibly triggering a juicy dividend without having to find a winner! If that sounds tempting, then the Placepot could be worth a punt, especially as the average payout at Royal Ascot during the last five years was over £700.

Day one: £580 - £2,147 - £585 - £1,219 - £175 (average £941)
Day two: £890 - £151 - £157 - £165 - £301 (average £332)
Day three: £353 - £482 - £447 - £299 - £122 (average £340)
Day four: £173 - £403 - £49 - £1,251 - £139 (average £403)
Day five: £25 - £2,398 - £163 - £1,080 - £4,385 (average £1,610)

There were certain days that traditionally paid out lower dividends in contrast to day one and the final day, which both paid higher returns - Tuesday paid a minimum of £580 during the last five years. Last year also showed that when soft ground was around during the first three days, shock results occurred and bigger dividends were paid, compared to when the ground dried out during the last two days and the form and results became more predictable, resulting in lower dividends.

Long term, both the first and final days (Tuesday and Saturday) produced big payouts, but it’s worth noting the schedule has changed this year and some days will be different - for instance, the Coventry has been switched from Tuesday to Saturday. It’s hard to know whether dividends will increase or decrease on those days, but here is a guide for three of the five days which could pay the biggest - good luck ‘Potting!

Day One - Tuesday

1:15 Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)

Of the 40 placed runners from 2005-2014 (reintroduced this year)…

40 were males
36 were officially rated 90-103
33 ran over 5f-7f last time
25 were drawn in the highest half of the draw

Placed runners breakdown of odds: 15/2 or shorter: 5-20
8/1 to 16/1: 19-77
18/1 to 33/1: 11-103
40/1 or bigger: 5-61

Favourites/joint place record: 3-13
Second-favourites place record: 2-9

Tip: Look for value in the 8/1 to 16/1 bracket.

1:50 Queen Anne Stakes

Of the 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…

25 were 4-5yo’s
25 ran over the same trip or were dropped in trip from last time
24 were Irish/British-bred
21 ran in a Group 1 last time
14 arrived via Newbury (14) 5 were trained by A O Brien (5-13); 4 by F Head (4-5); 3 by A Balding (3-7)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
11/4 or shorter: 6-11
3/1 to 6/1: 5-16
7/1 to 20/1: 13-48
22/1 or bigger: 4-44

Favourites/joint place record: 7-11
Second-favourites place record: 6-12

Tip: Well-fancied runners came out best.

2:25 Ribblesdale Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

26 ran in a Group/Listed race last time
25 had 3-6 career runs
19 were officially rated 19-51 (37%) - others were 11-64 (17%)

J Gosden had 8 placed (8-23); A O’Brien had 5 (5-17); Sir M Stoute had 4 (4-8); J Bolger had 2 (2-2)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 15-23
5/1 to 11/1: 8-28
12/1 to 20/1: 6-32
22/1 or bigger: 1-32

Favourites/joint place record: 8-11
Second-favourites place record: 6-11

Tip: Side with the classier runners officially rated 100+.

3:00 King Edward VII Stakes

Of the 28 placed runners during the last 10 years…

26 avoided the lowest quarter of the draw
26 had a 25% or higher strike-rate 22 ran over 1m2f or 1m4f last time
19 made the top three last time
7 were trained by A O’Brien (7-15); J Gosden had 6-12;  Sir M Stoute had 4-7; M Johnston had 2-4; A Balding had 2-3.

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
3/1 or shorter: 6-10
7/2 to 13/2: 7-21
7/1 to 14/1: 13-34

Favourites/joint place record: 6-10
Second-favourites place record: 5-11

Tip: Look for value in the 7/1 to 14/1 range.

3:35 King’s Stand Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

23 were 4-6yo’s
23 ran in a Group race last time
20 either won or were beaten 1-2l last time
20 were officially rated 113 or higher

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
6/1 or shorter: 14-26
13/2 to 12/1: 5-30
14/1 to 20/1: 7-31
22/1 or bigger: 4-79

Favourites/joint place record: 4-11
Second-favourites place record: 6-9

Tip: Fancied runners did well.

4:10 Duke of Cambridge Stakes

Of the 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…

27 were officially rated 104-117
26 were Irish/British-bred
24 ran over 1m-1m1f last time
22 ran in a Group 2 or Group 3 last time
Sir M Stoute had 4 placed (4-9); J Fanshawe had 2-5; A Fabre had 2-3; S Bin Suroor had 2-7; J Gosden had 2-5; M Botti had 2-3

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 13-21
5/1 to 11/1: 9-31
12/1 to 25/1: 6-36
28/1 or bigger: 1-33

Favourites/joint place record: 5-10
Second-favourites place record: 8-10

Tip: Avoid runners stepping up from 7f

Day Two - Wednesday

1:15 Silver Royal Hunt Cup
New race, no stats available.

1:50 Hampton Court Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners from 2010 to 2019…

27 made their Ascot debuts
26 were officially rated 101-114
25 won during their last three runs
22 ran in a Group 3/Listed or Class 2 race last time
22 came from the lowest half of the draw
16 were British-bred (33%) - others were 19%

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
5/1 or shorter: 13-24
11/2 to 11/1: 11-32
12/1 to 20/1: 6-37
22/1 or bigger: 0-30

Favourites/joint place record: 7-11
Second-favourites place record: 4-11

Tip: Ignore runners drawn very high.

2:25 King George V Stakes (Handicap)

Of the 40 placed runners from 2010 to 2019…

35 made the top three last time
34 won 0-1 handicaps
33 were officially rated 85-95
33 won during their last three runs
28 came from the highest half of the draw
M Johnston had 5 placed (5-31); A O’Brien had 4-11; C Appleby had 3-8; S Bin Suroor had 3-6; Sir M Stoute had 3-9

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 5-15
5/1 to 9/1: 14-28
10/1 to 20/1: 18-95
22/1 or bigger: 6-57

Favourites/joint place record: 4-12
Second-favourites place record: 4-10

Tip: Look for value in the 5/1 to 9/1 bracket.

3:00 Prince of Wales’s Stakes

Of the 27 placed runners from 2010 to 2019…

25 were 4-5yo’s
22 were officially rated 117-130
22 made the top two last time out
21 won over 1m2f
14 were drawn in stalls 6, 7, 8 & 9
A O’Brien had 6 placed (6-13); Sir M Stoute had 4-8

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 15-18
5/1 to 17/2: 8-19
9/1 to 18/1: 3-21
20/1 or bigger: 1-29

Favourites/joint place record: 7-10
Second-favourites place record: 9-10

Tip: Second favourites boast a solid record.

3:35 Royal Hunt Cup

Of the 40 placed runners from 2010 to 2019…

33 were officially rated 97-109
31 were drawn in stalls 10-26
30 ran in a handicap last time
J Gosden had 3 placed (3-10); J Osborne had 3-7; C Hills had 2-4; B Ellison had 2-5; S Bin Suroor had 2-7; C Appleby had 2-6; H Morrison had 2-4
Blinkered runners did well, being placed at 7-26
Runners that were 9/4 or shorter last time were placed at just 1-24

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
15/2 or shorter: 1-11
8/1 to 14/1: 13-59
16/1 to 33/1: 20-150
40/1 or bigger: 6-68

Favourites/joint place record: 1-13
Second-favourites place record: 3-11

Tip: Stick with runners drawn down the middle.

4:10 Windsor Castle Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners from 2010 to 2019…

29 were British or Irish-bred
28 were males
28 made the top four in the UK last time out
13 came from stalls 20-28
A O’Brienhad 4 placed (4-11); R Fahey had 3-11; C Appleby had 2-3 ; S Bin Suroor 2-4; K Ryan had 2-4; K Dalgleish had 2-2

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
13/2 or shorter: 6-22
7/1 to 11/1: 3-29
12/1 to 25/1: 19-74
28/1 or bigger: 2-104

Favourites/joint place record: 4-11
Second-favourites place record: 2-11

Tip: Look for a bargain in the 12/1 to 25/1 range

Final Day - Saturday

12:40 Silver Wokingham Stakes
New race, no stats available

1:15 Queen Mary Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

28 ran over 4.5f-5f last time
27 had a 50% or better win career record 27 were drawn in stalls 1-8 or 16 and higher - avoid stalls 9-15
25 either won or arrived from abroad last time
W Ward had 5 placed (5-10); R Hannon had 2-7; C Cox had 2-5

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 9-12
5/1 to 11/1: 10-37
12/1 or bigger: 11-161

Favourites/joint place record: 3-10
Second-favourites place record: 6-11

Tip: Avoid stalls 9-15 and those who ran over 5.5f-6f last time

1:50 Coronation Stakes

Of the 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…

26 were officially rated 104 to 118
21 were Irish (18-57) or French-bred (3-6)
17 came from the highest half of the draw
A O’Brien had 6 placed (6-15); J-C Rouget had 3-3; J Bolger had 2-4; Sir M Stoute had 2-6; J Gosden had 2-9

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
6/1 or shorter: 15-30
13/2 to 11/1: 6-19
12/1 to 25/1: 7-43
28/1 or bigger: 1-22

Favourites/joint place record: 6-11
Second-favourites place record: 5-11

Tip: Respect runners from Ireland and France.

2:25 Coventry Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

29 won last time
26 ran in a maiden or Listed race last time 17 marginally held the call from the highest half of the draw
A O’Brien had 9 placed (9-19); R Hannon had 3-10; G Lyons had 2-2; M Johnston had 2-14

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 11-16
5/1 to 11/1: 11-33
12/1 to 22/1: 7-45
25/1 or bigger: 1-87

Favourites/joint place record: 6-11
Second-favourites place record: 6-9

Tip: Stick with winning maiden or Listed form last time out.

3:00 St James’s Palace Stakes

Of the 27 placed runners during the last 10 years…

25 avoided the third highest quarter of stalls (i.e. 7,8, 9 in a field of 12) 24 were officially rated 111 or higher
23 were British or Irish-bred
23 ran over 7f-1m or further last time
21 either won or were beaten under 4l last time
19 ran in a Group 1 last time
A O’Brien had 7 placed (7-21); J Gosden had 5-9; R Hannon had 2-4

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/4 or shorter: 7-8
5/2 to 6/1: 8-19
13/2 to 14/1: 9-25
16/1 or bigger: 3-39

Favourites/joint place record: 8-11
Second-favourites place record: 4-9

Tip: Stick with classy runners officially rated 111 or higher.

3:35 Diamond Jubilee Stakes

Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

26 were 3-5yo’s
26 avoided the lowest quarter of stalls
26 ran over 5f-6f last time
22 had 0-1 previous runs at Ascot
18 ran in a Group 1 or Group 2 race last time
17 were officially rated 116-132
J Fanshawe had 4 placed (4-8), A O’Brien had 3-9, H Candy had 2-4, W Ward had 2-4

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
5/1 or shorter: 13-21
11/2 to 10/1: 4-26
11/1 to 25/1: 10-61
28/1 or bigger: 3-50

Favourites/joint place record: 7-12
Second-favourites place record: 5-9

Tip: Steer clear of runners in the lowest part of the draw.

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