Royal Ascot - At The Races

17:00 Ascot 20 Jun 2017

Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (4YO plus)

Winner £49,800 - 18 ran

5

2m 3f 210y

Good to Firm

View Course Guide

Weighed In

Last year’s race

Jennies Jewel
  • Winner: Jennies Jewel
  • Jockey: R P Whelan
  • Trainer: J P Fahey
  • Owner: Mr A N McIntyre
  • Age: 9 Weight: 9st 3lb
  • Starting Price: 6/1
  • Season Form Figures: 1
  • Previous Best: 1st - Handicap race, Curragh (May 2016)

Probably the best handicap at the meeting for punters with the last eight winners sent off at no bigger than 12/1. During the last 27 years as many as 19 winners could be located in the first five in the betting including Jennies Jewel (6/1 second-favourite) last year. There had been no successful favourite since Riyadh in 2002 until the well-backed Clondaw Warrior put that right in 2015.

Nine of the last ten winners were trained by stables better known for jumps racing (Charles Byrnes, Jonjo O’Neill Willie Mullins (x2), Nicky Henderson, David Pipe, Suzy Smith, Paul Webber and Jarlath Fahey) and, over a longer period of time, 12 of the last 15. Pipe has also trained a second and third in recent reasons and his father won this race four times when he held the licence at Nicholashayne. Tony Martin is another trainer better known for his handling of jumpers and he has landed more than his fair share of big handicaps in Britain and this race has been no exception with Barba Papa (2000) and Leg Spinner (2005) taking the spoils and he has had a further two placed runners in the last decade.

Nine of the last ten winners were trained by stables better known for jumps racing and, over a longer period of time, 12 of the last 15.

There used to be weight, draw and age angles to exploit but not anymore. Horses carrying less than 9st had been responsible for approximately 50% of the total runners between 1996-2008 but only won on three occasions but, in the last half a dozen years, the weights have been so much more compressed that very few horses have run off below 9st, which was the bottom weight last year. Therefore, it should be better to concentrate now on official ratings stats as 11 of the last 15 winners were rated between 83-93 heading into the race.

Even over 2m4f there was a draw angle a few years ago when the race featured nigh on 30 runners but that edge has been taken away by reducing the maximum field size to 20 so we have lost an ‘in’ there as there has been no advantage since.

The Ascot Stakes was very much a race in which to concentrate on four and five-year-olds but the last three winners were aged seven, eight and nine and all three were trained in Ireland. Prior to those Irish-trained victories, 15 of the previous 19 winners emerging from that age bracket. Perhaps it might be best to only overlook horses aged 6+ in Britain based on the most recent results?

There are no really strong individual race guides with the Chester Cup faring best with three of the last 16 winners taking part. 

At a glance summary

Positives
Trained by a primarily jumps-based stable
Officially rated between 83 and 93
Trained in Ireland
Start in the first five in the betting
Ran well in the Chester Cup
Negatives
Aged older than five five (unless Irish trained)

Previous Winners
Year Going Ran Winner Draw Age Weight OR Form Last run Trainer (Distance) Jockey SP Time
2016 Soft 20 Jennies Jewel 2 9 9 3 93 2231-21 23 days J P Fahey (266 miles) R P Whelan 6/1 4:34.70
2015 Good to Firm 19 Clondaw Warrior 19 8 9 0 89 137B2-3 45 days W P Mullins R L Moore 5/1 4:20.52
2014 Good 19 Domination 17 7 9 7 92 11015-0 37 days C Byrnes F M Berry 12/1 4:20.30
2013 Good 19 Well Sharp 16 5 9 10 95 86113-1 33 days Jonjo O'Neill (85 miles) F M Berry 9/1 4:28.41
2012 Good 20 Simenon 7 5 9 10 95 51203-1 25 days W P Mullins R L Moore 8/1 4:30.50
2011 Good 19 Veiled 10 5 9 3 88 0611-41 17 days N Henderson (27 miles) E Ahern 11/2 4:24.82
2010 Good 20 Junior 16 7 9 0 85 0-43131 68 days D Pipe (140 miles) S Sanders 17/2 4:23.92
2009 Good to Firm 20 Judgethemoment 19 4 9 5 91 1566-11 38 days J Chapple-Hyam (88 miles) R Hughes 13/2 4:25.55
2008 Good to Firm 18 Missoula 9 5 9 0 85 1414-04 17 days Miss S Smith (63 miles) S Hitchcott 20/1 4:28.61
2007 Good to Firm 20 Full House 4 8 9 1 86 4P0F6-1 26 days P Webber (75 miles) J Fortune 20/1 4:18.29